Forecasters give an Atlantic system 70% odds this week

The National Hurricane Center's Tuesday outlook flags three areas in the Atlantic, and one of them is worth watching. A system in the central tropical Atlantic, roughly 500 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, carries a 30% chance of developing in the next two days and 70% over seven days. The other two areas, one east of the Windward Islands and one northeast of Bermuda, are near zero and 10%. Nothing is threatening land right now, and none of these has a track yet.

Those odds describe formation, not landfall, and most storms that form out there never reach Florida. The reason to pay attention anyway is timing. Mid-August through October is the busiest stretch of the season, and the two things you might want to change about your coverage both have a clock on them. A new NFIP flood policy generally takes 30 days to take effect, so buying it the week a storm appears does nothing for that storm. Florida carriers also stop writing new or increased coverage once a named storm threatens the state, which means the window to raise a limit or add a policy closes before the rain starts. Check two lines on your declarations page today: your hurricane deductible, usually a percentage of your dwelling limit rather than a flat dollar figure, and whether you carry flood at all.

An independent agent can pull your policy, walk you through both numbers, and re-shop your coverage across carriers while the tropics are still quiet.