Atlantic Niña may calm the season. It's still an active forecast.

A rare Atlantic Niña is forming at the same time as a strong Pacific El Niño, and both patterns tend to hold Atlantic hurricane activity down. Even with that working in Florida's favor, forecasters cited by the New York Post still expect 11 to 16 named storms this season and as many as seven hurricanes.

A quieter forecast is not a quiet season. Below-average years have produced some of Florida's worst landfalls, and seasonal numbers say nothing about where a storm goes. The part you control is your policy, and the two lines to check now are your hurricane deductible and whether you carry flood at all. Hurricane deductibles are usually a percentage of your dwelling limit rather than a flat dollar amount, so on a $500,000 home a 2% deductible is $10,000 out of pocket. Flood is a separate policy with a 30-day wait on new NFIP coverage, and most carriers stop writing anything new once a storm enters the forecast cone.

If you have not looked at your declarations page since last renewal, an independent agent can pull it up and walk you through both numbers before the next system forms.